Russian political expert Nikolay Pavlov: “We do not know what Trump and CIA director agreed on, with the Taliban”

by Sami Burgaz
Nikolai Aleksandrovich Pavlov

Russian politician Nikolai Alexandrovich Pavlov was born on June 30, 1951 in the Yaroslavl region. He operated as a member of the Supreme Soviet of the former Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, the Nation-State Structure and Ethnic Relations Commission. At the session of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union, he was one of 7 deputies who voted against the ratification of the Belovezhskaya Agreement on the end of the existence of the USSR and the establishment of the CIS. He won the title of Deputy in the 4th State Duma elections held in the Russian Federation.

Afghanistan, which has been on the agenda with many issues recently, has again attracted the attention of the world with the latest developments. The withdrawal process of the USA, which has decided to leave Afghanistan after 20 years, is coming to an end. On the other hand, it was reported that five rockets were thrown to Kabul Airport, where the withdrawal process continues at, and people gathered while anxiously waiting to be evacuated. It was stated that the rockets were neutralized thanks to the USA’s air defense system.

The most important issue discussed by the experts is how the new government, which will be established in Afghanistan, will affect the region and the sustainability of the stability that will be provided in the country. Each of the neighboring countries worries about the instability and risks that affect them negatively. While one of these states, China, is glad that Washington’s geopolitical influence in the region will decrease with the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan, in the meantime, its biggest concern is that the Xinjiang region, where there is a dense Muslim minority, in the northwest of the country, will be affected by the developments.

Then, did the USA really fail in Afghanistan, or are there unknown reasons behind this step? We talked about this issue with Russian political expert Nikolay Pavlov.  

Mr. Pavlov, do you consider the USA’s withdrawal from Afghanistan as USA’s defeat?

I would like to state that this issue is extremely important and comprehensive. Of course, it is necessary to examine and understand not only today’s events but also past events. Most important of all, everything is just beginning…

I want to say that I cannot support or agree with the prevailing opinion that the United States has been defeated in Afghanistan today, and it hastily left the country after 20 years of presence, and indeed 20 years of occupation. The reason I think so is, first of all, the analysis of the strategic behavior of the United States of America in the international arena for many years.

Then, how do you evaluate the withdrawal?

The Americans’ decision to leave Afghanistan is not due to stupidity or weakness, it’s their strategy. In this context, it would be appropriate to refer to the activities of William Casey, Director of the USA Central Intelligence Agency, who is one of the most influential directors of the institution that has made the chiefs of special services of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, its main partners in the struggle against the USSR, with at least 40 visits to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries of the Middle East. Today, we do not know what former USA President Donald Trump and the CIA director had agreed on with the Taliban, and it would be naivety to think that thiswill not try to influence the situation by leaving Afghanistan. Yes, Americans are going through a certain crisis, but after all, America is still the world leader. For example, the crisis of the Roman Empire lasted 400 years.

What role will China play in ensuring stability and security in Afghanistan?

For China, security priorities in Central Asia are determined by two factors; the need to ensure the reliability of transport corridors and the duty of struggling with separatism and radical Uyghur nationalism in Xinjiang. In addition, China faces the challenge of ensuring the safety of the increasing number of Chinese citizens working in the region. And as the Chinese middle class grows, China will become an attractive target for the international drug trade. Therefore, Beijing’s security interests will constantly expand.

Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of The Asia Today.


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