ADB has improved its economic growth forecast for Uzbekistan for the current and next years, the bank said in its September 2023 outlook. According to the forecast, the Uzbek economy will grow by 5.5% annually in the next two years. In April, the bank forecast 5 percent economic growth.
Among the reasons for the improved forecast are an increase in food and textile exports to Russia, as well as increase in investment.
The economy of Uzbekistan grew by 5.6% in H1 2023, exceeding expectations. This was supported by fiscal stimulus, strong foreign trade, industrial growth, and increased mining and investment. However, due to inflation, consumption has slowed down.
In addition, ADB does not expect inflation to fall below 10%. The report noted that price liberalization would help increase inflationary pressures in the short term.
Additionally, remittances fell 55% in Q1 2023 from their 2022 high. One of the reasons is the reduction in the number of seasonal labor migrants working in Russia.