Central Asia has historically been the crossroads of trade routes and various civilizations. Today, the legacy of this rich past defines Central Asia’s strategic position on the international stage. The China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plays an important role in the region’s resurgence. Central Asian countries are an important crossroads of this project.
From this perspective, Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Dr. Mher Sahakyan, Director of China-Eurasia Council, to assess the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China-Central Asia relations.
1.What is the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and for what purpose was it launched? What are the main objectives of this project?
Central Asia is part of the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the mainland direction of the Belt and Road Initiative. The main goal of this corridor is to upgrade or create transportation infrastructure and connections between China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and Europe. Ten years have passed since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the main direction of the project at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan. It is now clear that the infrastructure is ready and that the countries involved in this corridor will transport their goods to Europe via Central Asia, the South Caucasus and West Asia. Under this initiative, China is investing money in the countries of the region and projecting the Central Asian economy. This brings economic influence, which gradually turns into political influence.
2. What is the future of the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia? How will the project be developed and expanded in the coming period?
The first phase of the project in Central Asia (2013-2022) was about building basic transportation infrastructure such as roads, railroads, and ports to secure China’s connectivity to this region with its vast energy and mineral resources.
The second phase is more about strengthening that connectivity. The parties will seek to create new links, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad or the construction of a D-link for the China-Central Asia gas pipeline.
This phase will also focus on cooperation under the Digital Silk Road project. With its help, China will continue to export its high technologies to Central Asia and neighboring regions and build digital connectivity with them. This process is at the heart of the 21st century.
While China has sought to increase its economic influence in Central Asia in the first phase of the project, in the second phase it will focus on increasing its political influence and engagement on regional security issues. China has well-developed energy cooperation with Central Asian states. In the coming period, China and Central Asian states will focus on developing green energy projects within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative’s energy Silk Road
3. Are there plans to develop logistics and transportation infrastructure between countries in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia? How can the impact of these projects on regional and global trade be assessed?
Indeed, existing infrastructure connects the countries of the region. Modernization of railroads and roads has made Kazakhstan an important hub for Central Asia and global trade. The Khorgos dry cargo port is the largest in the world and of strategic importance for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. Kazakhstan has begun construction of the transcontinental highway between Western Europeand Western China, which has become an important part of this project.
If the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad is also built after long discussions, it will bring additional transportation opportunities for regional states. Due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, transportation and trade between East and West via the Northern Corridor has declined. As a leading trading country, China has been left behind. For example, the Belt and Road Initiative has lost more than 40% of transportation via the New Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor. Trade between China and Ukraine has declined from $19.3 billion in 2021 to $7.6 billion in 2022. Therefore, the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative is of great importance to reach its partners without the territory of Russia and Ukraine. If Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan find new avenues for peace and open transportation infrastructure, another vital development in this direction will be achieved.
Therefore, the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative is of great importance to reach its partners without the territory of Russia and Ukraine. If Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan find new ways for peace and open transport infrastructure, another important development in this direction will be achieved.
4. How will the Belt and Road Initiative interact with other regional integration and cooperation projects in Central Asia? What are your thoughts on this issue?
China has agreed to implement the Belt and Road Initiative jointly with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of this union. Uzbekistan has observer status. China also signed an economic and trade cooperation agreement with EEU member states. This agreement provides an opportunity to strengthen cooperation in transport, economy, technology, research and development, agriculture and other areas. China has agreed to align its Mega Initiative with the Turkic Central Corridor and Kazakhstan’s Bright Road Development Strategy. This means that China has found ways to work with these powers in Central Asia, with the parties emphasising cooperation over competition.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are also regional members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which China established in 2016 to finance Belt and Road Initiative projects. These countries have subsequently received additional loans to develop their economies under the Belt and Road Initiative.
China is also building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which will provide Central Asian countries with access to Gwadar and Karachi ports on the Arabian Sea.
It is worth noting that China is one of the leading members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and, with the help of this organisation, is trying to ensure stability and security in Central Asia, where it has significant investments and economic and political interests under the Belt and Road Initiative. China also cooperates on security issues in Central Asia with the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, of which Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are members.
Together with countries in the region, China has established the China-Central Asia Summit (C+C5) format to develop multilateral relations without external observers. At these meetings, decision-makers from these countries discuss issues, prospects, and outcomes of the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia.
Dr. Mher Sahakyan
Dr. Mher Sahakyan is the founder and director of the China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Studies in Yerevan. He is the editor of “China and Eurasian Powers 2.0 in a Multipolar World Order (Routledge, 2023).” He is also the editor of “Security, Diplomacy, Economy and Cybersecurity,” to be published by Routledge in March 2023. “He is a 2022 Asia Global Fellow of the Asia Global Institute and holds a PhD in international relations from Nanjing University, China. He is an elected member of the Advisory Board of the International Peace Institute in Vienna, Austria. He is the initiator of the annual international conference on modern China and Eurasia with the theme “Eurasian Studies.” Sahakyan is a lecturer at the Russian-Armenian University and Yerevan State University. He is the author of “China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Armenia,” which was published in Armenian and Russian and was shortlisted for the 2021 Book Prize at the International Congress of Asian Scholars in Leiden, Netherlands. He is also the author of “The New Great Power Rivalry in Central Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for the Gulf,” to be published by the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in the United Arab Emirates in 2021: Opportunities and Challenges for the Gulf,” to be published by the Diplomatic Academy in 2021. He is co-editor (with Heinz Gaertner) of “China and Eurasia” and co-editor of “Rethinking Cooperation and Contradictions in the Era of Changing World Order,” to be published by Routledge in September 2021.