Dr. Mehmood ul Hassan Khan
Dr. Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan has specialties in management, marketing, economics and governance. He has also master degree in Development with specialization in Diplomacy and Public Relations. He has also a rich experience in research, peace and conflict resolution and defence issues. His research and comprehensive articles have already been published in China, Uzbekistan, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, USA, South Korea, UAE and Kuwait too. He has great experience in the socio-economic, geo-politics and geo-strategic issues of Central Asia, Caucasus and Middle East. He is a famous expert on CIS and Caucasus in Pakistan. Member Board of Experts: CGSS, Islamabad. Ambassador at large at IHRFW.
Kashmir the paradise on earth has been changed into hell since 5th August 2019, the abrogation of Article 370 and 35(A) has given Kashmir conflict a different dimension.
It has not only changed the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) but also compromised the safeguard of the demographic status of J&K as a Muslim majority state in India.
It has multiplier socio-economic (Water terrorism, CPEC & BRI) geopolitical (domestic politics, Gilgit Baltistan etc. having security hang-over orientations) and geostrategic power compulsions (greater regional connectivity between South Asia and Central Asia, US China Containment Policy). It fears that after US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Kashmir may become a new flashpoint and center for regional proxies. Thus its resolution is in the best interest of both the nuclear states.
Throughout the last 75 years, several efforts were made, and multiple dialogues and negotiations took place, but Kashmir Conflict could not be resolved mainly due to India’s rigid approach and policies towards Kashmir and continuous trust deficits between Pakistan and India. However, India and Pakistan need to commit to peaceful and sustainable conflict resolution.
It is, therefore, needed that India and Pakistan opt for sustainable efforts and a systematic mechanism to resolve the territorial dispute and save the Kashmiris from great psychological and human losses.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has said that once the Kashmir issue is resolved, there will be no need for nuclear deterrents between India and Pakistan. However, interestingly while addressing a political procession in recently held election in Azad Kashmir Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has sloganeered to hold referendum to allow Kashmiris divided between Pakistan and India to decide on whether they want to join Pakistan or completely become an Independent state.
Time will not heal the Kashmir problem. Time has made things worse in Kashmir. If a strategy for resolution of this conflict had begun in the early or mid-1980s then we probably would have averted some of the crises that arose later in that decade, and certainly would not regard Kashmir now as one of the world’s nuclear flash-points.
It seems that Indian and Pakistani strategists are somehow locked in an unending competition over tactical advantage and scoring diplomatic points due to which prospects of conflict resolution has been diminished. No one is looking beyond the immediate events and short-term calculations of gain and pain.
To win the race of madness the 5th generation hybrid war has been schemed and staged during which chances of Kashmir conflict resolution have been further alienated. Disinformation virtual factories and globalized franchises of terror have actually burnt the real soul of Kashmir due to which humanity is now badly struggling for peaceful existence.
On the contrary, General Musharraf floated four points formula to put an end to frozen conflict of Kashmir which was treated as giving up maximalist positions. It included demilitarization and “self-governance with joint supervision mechanism”. There should be self-governance or autonomy but not independence. Unfortunately, due to complex and complicated overlapping reasons of geopolitics and geostrategic compulsions, it was dashed to ground in Agra, India.
Notwithstanding, now extended backchannel contacts which our National Security Advisor has labeled as “Direct Contact by India” a revival of the LoC ceasefire, an exchange of messages between the prime ministers, Pakistan’s offer of Covid-19 relief assistance to India, and possible negotiations on “all outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir”, should be bench mark for probable conflict resolution for Kashmir.
Frankly speaking there is no such management strategy or Super Computer Model or Artificial Intelligence Model of Simulations or established Model of Conflict Resolution that could resolve the issue of Kashmir at once. Nevertheless there is an urgent need to follow holistic model of conflict resolution by scarping respective political and war gaming and paradigm shift from geopolitics to geo-economy by encircling inbuilt aims of hegemony and horrendous crimes.
On its part, Pakistan should propose a solution of the Kashmir problem resembling the IRISH PEACE ACCORD which is the most VIABLE for resolution of the Kashmir conflict. The Good Friday Agreement, which resolved the Northern Ireland conflict. It was plugged actively by the US, which put pressure especially on the UK, in order to resolve the Northern Ireland conflict.
Pakistan may also put forward MODEL OF EAST TIMOR INDEPENDENCE based on the concept of self-determination. Pakistan should also pursued the UNSC resolutions on Kashmir and state their linkage to similar UNSC resolutions on East Timor (UNSC Resolution 384 of December 1975 and UNSC Resolution 389 of 1976), which were enforced in 1999, leading to East Timor’s independence from Indonesia through an UN-conducted plebiscite.
Moreover, systematic persuasions having integrated mechanism and support Pakistan should also invoke UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution that established their right to self-determination.
On the other hand, there is a strong realization in Pakistan that after the abrogation of Article 370 giant cruel process of planned genocide has now been geared towards the majority dominated Muslim population of Kashmir. It is now feared that due to this unilateral, undemocratic and unconstitutional act of the BJP government another Palestine may be emerged in the future in another continent.
Government of India has now demolished its own so called prestigious basic core of secularism by not accepting the right of rule of a majority in Kashmir and abolished article 370 & 35(A) in a just five minutes by presenting the bill in its parliament.
According to original 370 & 35 (A) any change in its utility, nature, composition, definition and execution, the Union Government of India (UGI) will have to consult with state government which has now been violated and BJP government has now put RSS stamp even in Kashmir. The article allowed the state a certain amount of autonomy i.e. its own constitution, a separate flag and freedom to make laws. Foreign affairs, defence and communications will be remained the preserve of the central government.
Abrogation of the article 370 & 35(A) has opened the gates of hell to indigenous Kashmiris in terms of ownership, geography, demography, political, economic, civil and last but not the least, social association. Rules of the game has been changed which has sever spillover repercussions for all the major power brokers in the region.
Historically, the disputed area was once a princely state called Jammu and Kashmir, but it joined India in 1947 when the sub-continent was divided up at the end of British rule. Both the countries subsequently went to war over it and each came to control different parts of the territory with a ceasefire line agreed. Afterwards, there has been violence in the occupied Kashmir for 50 years due to a separatist insurgency against Indian rule.
There have been three conflicting parties in the regional context i.e. India, people of Kashmir and of course Pakistan. India cannot alone bring any change in its basics. It is an act of state terrorism under the umbrella of so-called secularized constitution of India. It is an act of Nazi regime which wants to change the basic demography of Kashmir.
Kashmir, heaven on earth is still bleeding and has become the biggest jail on earth. Every important political leader of Kashmir is still under detention. Every street and road is still militarized by more than 700,000 Indian army and paramilitary forces.
UN Resolution No. 47 of 1948 provided that the “United Nations would conduct a free and impartial plebiscite” in the disputed territory. Most recent India’s action in altering the status quo of Jammu & Kashmir has implications which go beyond the illegal brutality of the act itself. It is a unilateral abrogation of the Shimla Agreement of 1972 and the Lahore Declaration of 1999, both of which have bound India and Pakistan to pursue peaceful means.
Essence of political wisdom and statesmanship demands that any violent act must be avoided to alter the geographical and demographical equations in the Kashmir valley. Every constitution stands for protection of basic rights of common people in the world which should not be misused for gratification and self-glorification. Humans are real, permanent and provisions of law are mere political tools for extension of once dynasty.
BJP led government must realize that people of Kashmir will prefer to die than to live under Indian rule anymore. Self-projected secularism of India, so-called diversified ethnic diversity and multiculturalism are on stake. Let us hope sanity may prevail.