O.Bekmuhamedov, Independent Applicant. Researcher of Regional Security Issues
Today, each Central Asian country considers ensuring its own food security as one of the most pressing priorities. At the same time, these states face common challenges and threats that can negatively impact the food security of the entire region.
Among such challenges, one can note the deterioration of water and climate conditions, the dependence of all countries in the region on external food markets, and the global geopolitical situation. In this regard, the issues of developing cooperation between the countries of the region on the path to jointly overcoming the aforementioned problems become relevant.
It should be particularly emphasized that Uzbekistan’s active foreign policy in Central Asia has served as a positive impulse in strengthening interaction between states in the agricultural and food sectors. This can be evidenced by the increased frequency of interstate, bilateral, and multilateral meetings, including negotiations at the highest level. As a result, along with other documents, a solid package of agreements concerning the agro-industrial sector is usually signed.
The negotiations between Presidents Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on August 8 of this year were no exception. As part of the visit, an Agreement was signed between the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan on cooperation in the field of agriculture.
The visit of the President of Kazakhstan to Tashkent in November 2022 can be considered one of the most productive in terms of documents related to the food sector. As part of these negotiations, among other documents, agreements were reached on the joint production of mineral fertilizers, and a Program of bilateral cooperation was approved to increase mutual trade and implement joint projects in the field of agricultural production, amounting to $1.3 billion.
Similarly, in January-March 2023, following visits by high-level delegations and negotiations at the highest level between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, 8 documents on cooperation in the agro-industrial sector were signed. These documents cover a wide range of issues related to cooperation in the field of cultivation, phytosanitary regulation, and mutual supply of agricultural products.
Tashkent’s contacts with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are actively developing as well. In recent years, the Uzbek side has also signed several “Road Maps” with these states to deepen cooperation between regions, rationally use transboundary river resources, and intensify cross-border trade.
During the period 2017-2019, Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with Central Asian countries almost doubled – from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. At the same time, trade with Kazakhstan increased by 1.6 times, with Kyrgyzstan – by 2.3 times, with Turkmenistan – by 3.1 times, and with Tajikistan – by 2 times. According to domestic and foreign experts, there remains a significant unrealized potential for further increasing trade turnover.
Kazakhstan is the leader in Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover of food products in Central Asia. For example, in 2022 alone, Uzbekistan imported almost 3 million tons of wheat from Kazakhstan. The volume of Uzbekistan’s exports of fruits and vegetables to Kazakhstan amounted to $216 million.
Central Asian states are the main consumers of Kazakhstani grain. The largest volume of trade falls on Uzbekistan – about 60%, Tajikistan – 18%, Kyrgyzstan – 14%, and Turkmenistan – 6%.
At the same time, there remains a great potential for further increasing more targeted cooperation among the Central Asian countries.
In particular, when it comes to ensuring food security, each country relies solely on its own resources. However, most challenges and threats are common to the region and affect all states.
In the region, against the backdrop of demographic growth (75.5 million people), sources of water resources are decreasing. Over the past 15 years, the area of irrigated land per capita has decreased by more than 25%. It is expected that the volume of water in the basins of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, which are vital sources of irrigation water for 10 million hectares of land, will decrease by 15%. The excessive reduction of glaciers, the sources of these rivers, continues.
In turn, to overcome and successfully adapt to the aforementioned negative trends, it is necessary to combine efforts and coordinate actions by all countries of the region. However, the coordinated work of the countries of the region in improving overall food security is hindered by differences in the level of socio-economic development, as well as different priorities and approaches of each state to the problem.
For example, Kazakhstan is the most prosperous country in the region in terms of food security. In the current conditions, one of the main tasks of the leadership of this state is to maintain high prices for grain exports in order to improve the financial situation of farmers.
The situation in Kyrgyzstan is characterized by measures taken by the state to maintain the stability of domestic prices and prevent a shortage of food products. According to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture, out of 9 basic food products, Kyrgyzstan does not meet its own needs in 5 positions – vegetable oil, sugar, meat and meat products, bakery products, and chicken eggs.
Tajikistan also has a high dependence on food imports. National production satisfies domestic needs only in milk and fruits.
Turkmenistan is facing important reforms to introduce market principles in the agricultural sector.
Meanwhile, experts note the need to continue work towards the adoption of bilateral and multilateral documents in the areas of:
– transit of goods, logistics, cooperation in agro-industrial production;
– marketing research aimed at determining the necessary consumption volumes of certain products on the ground, which will allow setting prices for future harvests and concluding forward contracts based on them;
– monitoring and improving the environmental situation in the region, introducing ecosystem services;
– exchange of experience in improving the efficiency of irrigation systems and technologies.
In addition, industry experts include in their recommendations proposals for the development of institutional capacity and infrastructure to enhance trade in agricultural products, which would contribute to the overall strengthening of the region’s food security.
For example, according to representatives of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program, Central Asian countries should work on developing joint food production and distribution chains, including storage and processing services. It is noted that in the region, losses of harvested fruits and vegetables reach up to 25%.
To this end, experts propose creating a favorable business environment that will stimulate private sector investment in vital facilities and services for food supply. At the same time, governments need to improve strategic planning and zoning of production, develop public infrastructure, and ensure land ownership rights for primary agriculture and post-harvest processing.
Another important area in the development of food trade is the improvement of food safety systems. Central Asian countries, in most cases, have a low level of food safety, outdated standards in the field of sanitary, phytosanitary, and epizootic control that do not comply with international standards, which is a serious barrier to the mutual expansion of the range of exported food products.
In general, it follows from the above analysis that the issue of ensuring food security is one of the main narratives of the Central Asian states and remains on the agenda. In this regard, this issue can act as one of the unifying factors for the rapprochement of the states of the region.
Thus, the following measures can contribute to improving the food situation in the region:
– increasing the inflow of mutual investments, creating joint clusters operating on the basis of interstate production sharing agreements;
– developing specialization of national agro-industrial complexes and interstate division of labor, taking into account comparative advantages;
– creating mechanisms for interstate exchange of relevant information between ministries of agriculture and research organizations;
– ensuring financing and organization of interstate scientific research, intensifying the processes of exchange of experience between national bodies involved in ensuring food security;
– strengthening measures for certification, standardization, and stimulation of the production of high-quality organic (environmentally friendly) food products, as well as harmonizing the legislation of the states of the region in this area, which will allow them to successfully compete in international markets.