Central Asian countries are experiencing significant economic progress, with trade within the region expanding 2.5 times over the past decade, reaching nearly $11 billion.
Diverse economies, common potential
Central Asia’s combined GDP stands at $347 billion, quadrupling over the last 20 years, with a population of 77 million that has grown 1.4 times since 2000. The United Nations data projects annual population growth of 1.1% through 2040, suggesting further economic expansion as the working-age population increases.
The economies of Central Asia vary considerably. Kazakhstan’s GDP reflects upper-middle-income characteristics, with services and industry dominating, while Turkmenistan relies heavily on industry due to its mineral resources. In the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, agriculture plays a larger role, typical of lower-middle-income economies.
Kazakhstan’s GDP rose 4% from January to September 2024, up from 3.7% earlier in the year, led by gains in agriculture, construction, transport, and communications. The construction sector benefited from starting support for housing initiatives for flood victims. The trade surplus rose to $15.4 billion, up $4 billion from last year, driven by energy and chemical exports, while imports fell by 5.6%.
The country’s foreign trade turnover from January to August was $91.7 billion, down 0.6% from 2023. Exports rose 3.3% to $53.5 billion, while imports decreased by 5.6% to $38.1 billion. Trade with Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries totaled $18.9 billion, a 3.3% decrease, with a 9.8% drop in exports and a 0.9% increase in imports.
Uzbekistan’s GDP rose by 6.4% in the first half of 2024, up from 5.6% a year earlier. Budget revenues increased by 14% to 113 trillion soums (US$8.8 billion), while expenditures reached 149.8 trillion soums (US$11.6 billion), resulting in a budget deficit. Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover grew 8.5% to $31.8 billion, with exports up 5.5% and imports rising 10.6%.
In the Kyrgyz Republic, investments surged 59.3% from January to August, focusing on mining, transportation, and energy. GDP growth rose to 8.4% from January to September, driven by strong consumer activity and investment. Trade turnover increased 4.7% from January to July, as imports from China climbed by 32.7%, while exports declined due to reduced shipments to Russia and Kazakhstan. Trade with EAEU countries accounted for 30.6% of total turnover, while trade with non-EAEU countries made up 69.4%.
Tajikistan’s economy continues to grow, supported by consumption and exports. Inflation remains below the National Bank’s target, with consumer prices rising only 3.6% in August.
From January to August, retail sales rose by 12.3%, while paid services increased by 12.7%, following growth rates of 14.3% and 11.2%, respectively, in the first half of the year. Wage growth, including public sector increases beginning July 1, and continued remittance inflows bolstered trade and services. Exports, primarily of metals and textiles, rose by 45.5%, contributing significantly to GDP growth.