Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who has long been rumored to visit China, announced that he accepted the invitation.[1] Thus, it is estimated that the deteriorated relations will be revitalized in 2020. At this point, Australia’s plans for China are often debated. Bilateral relations have been oscillating between “dialoguing” and “competing” for many years.
What everyone agrees on is that the parties advocate very different positions on regional policy and national values. Nevertheless, constructive dialogue is expected to reduce misunderstandings and differences of opinion between the parties. As a result of high-level talks over the past year and a half, embargoes on some trade items have finally been lifted.
Prime Minister Albanese is expected to visit Beijing in late October or early November, although the dates of the visit have not yet been confirmed. The counter-argument put forward by the likes of Albanese’s predecessor, Scott Morrison, is that the government should seek more concessions from Beijing before the trip. Simultaneously, however, the Albanese government is in full swing with its plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the United Kingdom and the United States (US) as part of the ICUS. Concerned about China’s military activities, Canberra is focusing on security moves, while at the same time engaging in dialogue to contain it.
For example, Prime Minister Albanese recently visited the Philippines, which is increasingly distancing itself from China due to the recent disputes in the South China Sea. This is because Australia is planning joint maritime patrols with the Philippines in these seas. In addition, Canberra maintains its core policies, such as banning the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei from the 5G network. Australia continues to warn Beijing about tensions in the Taiwan Strait, while also distancing itself from China-led regional trade agreements.
While Australia continued to seek dialogue with China, Prime Minister Albanese met with his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang in Jakarta, Indonesia on September 7, 2023. In what was described as a very cordial and constructive meeting, Albanese continued to argue that the removal of existing trade barriers would be in the interest of both countries. Among the Australian delegates at this meeting were former ministers Craig Emerson and Julie Bishop. It appears that negative issues such as the AUKUS were not directly raised at this meeting. Again, China is uncomfortable with Australia seeing it as a “threat” and has often stated that this would be a strategic mistake.[2] If both countries can resolve their differences and engage in constructive dialogue, this could serve as a role model for China and other Western countries.
China sees that Australia is under pressure from the West and urges it to move away from foreign influences. If the Canberra government acts in its own national interests, it will be able to develop positive relations with Beijing. However, as a result of pressure from the UK and the US, Australia is siding with the West in regional geopolitics. In Beijing’s view, Canberra continues to make this strategic mistake. Nevertheless, China always leaves the door open for dialogue with Western powers, including Australia.
It is rumored that Prime Minister Albanese will go to Washington to meet with US President Joe Biden in late October before his visit to China. Thus, it is understood that Australia will continue to be under pressure from the US in its relations with China.
China is striving to restore mutual trust with every actor in the region that has been under pressure from the US.[3] Beijing is well aware that it is the Western powers that have soured relations with the regional actor. In order to reverse this and start a constructive dialogue, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with several Western leaders at the G20 Summit in Bali in November 2022. One of the actors he met was Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese. A month later, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited Beijing.
As a result of this thaw in bilateral relations, China announced earlier this year that it would resume coal imports from Australia. However, embargoes on other items are still in place. Pleased with this opening, Australia is working to lift embargoes on other economic items. The Albanese government states that it is in the interest of both Australia and China to remove these barriers. Eventually, the Canberra administration may move away from the Western block politics and start to approach Beijing with a win-win approach. On the other hand, China does not pursue a completely open door policy towards Australia. It has still not lifted some embargoes. In other words, Beijing is in no hurry to improve bilateral relations. This is because there is mistrust. If Canberra stays away from US-led polarizing actions, it can continue to improve its relations with Beijing. If it makes more security moves with the US and Japan, it will alienate China.
[1] “Albanese’s China trip suggests a smoother relationship rather than a cosy one”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/08/anthony-albanese-china-trip-beijing-australia-china-relationship, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.09.2023).
[2] “Australia Warned Not to Become US’ ‘Spearhead’, As ‘2+2’ Meeting Goes Beyond Hyping ‘China Threats’”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281371.shtml, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.09.2023).
[3] “China Tells Australia Both Sides Should Address Each Other’s’ Legitimate Concerns”, Swiss Info, https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/china-tells-australia-both-sides-should-address-each-others–legitimate-concerns/48038986, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.09.2023).
Dr. Cenk TAMER
Source: https://www.ankasam.org/the-future-of-australia-china-relations/?lang=en